While every expert said the temporary gas tax cut was terrible policy, pretty much every pundit said it was great politics, showing Clinton knew how to connect with voters better than Obama.
Wrong.
After Clinton grasped for the pander move, Obama saw an opening.
Both results strongly outperformed most of the recent polling.
Notably, Obama triumphed in the exit polls on the question of who is "honest and trustworthy." 49% in NC and 45% in IN said Clinton was not honest. Only 27% and 30% respectively said the same of Obama.
He not only won the most votes and delegates yesterday, he won them in the right way -- in a way that bolsters his message, forges trust and helps build a governing mandate.
Clinton sought to undermine him not simply with a pander move, but with continued borrowing of right-wing frames and arguments (obliterating Iran, deriding expert policy recommendations, mocking fellow Dems as "elitist.") You can't build a governing mandate that way.
But that's a moot point, because she lost the argument and the night. And in all likelihood, the nomination.
"I started this race as the complete underdog. I mean nobody thought that a black guy named Barack Obama was going to beat the best brand in Democratic politics," he told the crowd while answering a question from undecided voter Diana Allen, 39 years old, who said she would vote for the candidate she thought had the best chance of winning.
Once he became the frontrunner, Obama said his opponents piled on. "And the press is happy to oblige, so there was a kitchen sink strategy employed where they were throwing a whole bunch of stuff and we made some mistakes, some self-inflicted," he said. "Most recently obviously there's been this furor over the remarks of my former pastor which there's no doubt we took a hit on."
But despite those stumbles, he said the fact that he remains even in the polls with Hillary Clinton shows that his campaign is actually quite strong. "You know that folks are reaching when the big attack on me is I'm not wearing a flag pin," Obama said. "They're reaching. This is the best they can do."
Obama also said be believed Democrats would unify before the general election and that he would present winning arguments against expected Republican nominee John McCain on the war and the economy.
"So don't buy into this electability argument," he said. "Go with who you think best represents your vision of where America needs to go and if you do that I'm absolutely confident that that person will win."
The pundit reaction to the video clip was generally about how "tired" Obama looked.
My friends, I will have an energy policy that we will be talking about, which will eliminate our dependence on oil from the Middle East that will - that will then prevent us - that will prevent us from having ever to send our young men and women into conflict again in the Middle East.
Obviously, if it will prevent conflict "again," it means we did it before. McCain is now trying to claim he meant the 1991 war in Iraq, not the present occupation.
...what happens when 54 percent of the world's oil supply goes to risk with a collapse of the region. And this is a reality check that we only talk about in hushed terms, because we don't like to talk about our dependency on a part of the world that is so unstable.
Heritage Foundation's Conn Carroll and I have another installment of The Week In Blog up at Bloggingheads.tv. We discuss blogosphere reaction to McCain's health plan and 100 Years problem, Obama on Fox, Wright & Hagee and the Supreme Court ruling on voter ID. Watch it below.
It's very possible that both of Tuesday's primary contests will turn on Clinton and Obama's opposing positions on a temporary gas tax cut, instead of the recent media attention on Obama's former pastor.
Obama responds with a less traditional ad, featuring him in a recent town hall, mocking the proposed gas tax cut as typical Washington politics that sound good but never actually help anyone:
I noted before that Obama's best moments in the campaign have been his "adult" moments, when he is seen as "a regular voter disgusted by a system mired in pathetic childish politics."
He has employed that approach to effectively defuse negative attacks not about real issues.
This is different: an attempt to puncture stale Washington tactics regarding policy, in opposition to a populist-sounding tax cut no less.